Global resources: Dire predictions

Sam, Daniella & Claire
Balwyn High School
Australia

The situation now with regards to the planet's resources is particularly bad. There has been an increase in pollution, which in turn has created global warming. Global warming is a major cause of climate change. In the mid 70s, the melting of the Arctic ice cap began at the rate of eight per cent a decade. This rate of melting persisted almost unchanged until 2004. Before 2004 about one-quarter of the ice cap had melted, revealing the dark ocean underneath.

Global warming is complex and its full impact is hard to predict far in advance. Each year scientists learn more about how global warming is affecting the planet and many agree that certain consequences are likely to occur if current trends continue. Some of these are:

• Melting glaciers, earlier snowmelt and severe droughts, which will cause more dramatic water shortages in the American West
• Rising sea levels will lead to coastal flooding on the Eastern coast of Florida, and in other areas, such as the Gulf of Mexico
• Warmer sea surface temperatures will fuel more intense hurricanes in the south-eastern Atlantic and Gulf coasts
• forests, farms and cities will face troublesome new pests and more mosquito-borne diseases
• disruption of habitats, such as coral reefs and alpine meadows, which could drive many plant and animal species to extinction.

Lately, scientists have been investigating whether or not global warming could trigger a sudden catastrophe. In a worst-case scenario, global warming could trigger a sudden change in the Earth's climate, causing large areas of the world to become uninhabitable and cause massive food and water shortages, sparking widespread migrations and war.

Temperatures rise and fall naturally, but over the past few years the average global temperature has increased at the fastest rate in recorded history. And experts think the trend is accelerating: the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1990. Scientists say that, unless we control global warming emissions, average US temperatures could be three to nine degrees higher by the end of the century.

Global warming is already causing damage in many parts of the United States. In 2002, Colorado, Arizona and Oregon endured their worst ever wildfire seasons. The same year, drought created severe dust storms in Montana, Colorado and Kansas, and floods caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage in Texas, Montana and North Dakota. Since the early 1950s, snow accumulation has declined 60 per cent and winter seasons have shortened in some areas of the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington.

Of course, the impact of global warming is not limited to the United States. In 2003, extreme heat waves caused more than 20,000 deaths in Europe and more than 1,500 deaths in India. Scientists say this is a frightening sign of events to come; the area of the Arctic's recurrent polar ice cap is declining at the rate of nine per cent per decade.

Global warming doesn't create hurricanes, but it does make them stronger and more dangerous. Because the ocean is getting warmer, tropical storms can pick up more energy and become more powerful. So global warming could turn, say, a category three storm into a much more dangerous category four. Scientists have found that the harsh potential of hurricanes has greatly increased, along with ocean temperature, over the past 35 years.

The United States is the largest carbon dioxide polluter. Although Americans make up just four per cent of the world's population, they produce 25 per cent of the carbon dioxide pollution from burning fossil fuels. This is by far the largest share of any country. In fact, the United States emits more carbon dioxide than China, India and Japan put together. Clearly, America needs to do something about this. As they are the world's top developer of new technologies, they should be urgently trying to rectify this.

Many questions surround this topic. A common one is: 'What can be done about this?' It's simple - reduce pollution from vehicles and power plants. We should put existing technologies for building cleaner cars and more modern electricity generators into widespread use right away. People should rely on, and increase their use of, renewable energy sources such as wind, sun and geothermal. People need to produce more efficient appliances and conserve energy.

Cars are a huge cause of global warming. How can people reduce car pollution? Cost-effective technologies to reduce global warming pollution from cars and light trucks of all sizes are available now. There is no reason to wait and hope that hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will solve the problem in the future. Hybrid gas-electric engines can cut global warming pollution by one-third or more today. Hybrid sedans, SUVs and trucks from several manufacturers are already on the market.

But manufacturers should be doing a lot more: they've used a legal loophole to make SUVs far less fuel-efficient than they could be. The popularity of these vehicles has generated a 20 per cent increase in transport-related carbon dioxide pollution since the early 1990s. Closing this loophole, and requiring SUVs, minivans and pick-up trucks to be as efficient as cars, would cut 120 million tonnes of carbon dioxide pollution a year by 2010. If car makers used the technology they have right now to raise fuel economy standards for new cars and light trucks to a combined 40 m.p.g., carbon dioxide pollution would eventually drop by more than 650 million tonnes per year as these vehicles replaced older models.

Global warming has caused droughts to occur. A drought is a long-lasting, abnormally dry period when there is not enough water for users' normal needs. Drought is not simply low rainfall; if it were, much of inland Australia would be in almost perpetual drought. There is no universal definition of drought.

Droughts have an awful impact on countries. During climate extremes, whether droughts or flooding rains, those in rural areas feel it most. Agriculture suffers first and most severely, but eventually everyone feels the impact.

Droughts disrupt cropping programs, reduce breeding stock, and threaten permanent erosion of the capital and reserve base of farming enterprises. Declining productivity affects country Australia and the national economy.

The risk of serious environmental damage, particularly through vegetation loss and soil erosion, has long-term implications for the sustainability of our agricultural industries. Water quality suffers, and toxic algae outbreaks may occur. Plants and animals are also threatened.

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