Futures thinking for leading learning

Ms Deborah Kember
Professional Development Branch, Queensland Department of Education, Training and the Arts
Queensland, Australia

Introduction

Educators are being challenged by authors of government reports, researchers, colleagues and parents to better prepare students for a world that is very different from that in which they themselves were educated. Strategies for moving forward and creating schools for the 21st century, where innovation and creativity are fostered, are well considered in the literature (Hargreaves, 2002, 2003; Lake, 2002; OECD, 2001). However, a valuable lens through which to reflect on the future of school, and future schools, is from a futurist’s perspective. The concept of a futures premise, based on a philosophy of education committed to the preparation of students for new workplaces, technologies and cultures, is a starting point to for thinking about the path forward. The combined expertise and thinking of the ACEL network has the potential to build innovative ideas for leading learning in the 21st century.

In considering education futures, participants in the online conference will, no doubt, have a variety of perspectives and, while there is no intention to pre-empt the direction of discussion, potential commonalties are worth highlighting. Information and Communication Technologies enable useful and powerful ways to enhance, adapt and develop new pedagogies to meet the needs of future students. This could lead to a discussion on the place of professional development. Educational outcomes that schools and systems hope to achieve, by increasing the extent to which ICTs are integrated into classroom practice, can be grouped into several distinct types of professional development categories, namely to:

• encourage the acquisition ICT skills as an end in themselves
• use ICT to enhance students’ abilities within the existing curriculum
• introduce ICTs as an integral component of broader curriculum reform that change not only how learning occurs but what is learned
• introduce ICTs and an integral component of the reforms that alter the structure of schooling itself (Downes, 2002).

The ACEL online conference may well revise the list and devise other ways of thinking about learning through the course of the discussion. This requires the ability to observe and reflect on the changes happening around us and determine the impact on young people.

The strategies of futurists are useful and powerful tools to scaffold discussion and reflection on the future directions of school and future schools. The paper provides some background on the work of futurists and provides examples of recent projects, their purposes and their use in creating a culture of creativity and innovation. Leading thinking about learning will continue to improve our ability to advocate for what we value, but no one can ever tell us what to value, we have to write the script ourselves as the future is not inevitable, it about potential and possibilities (Weinberg, cited in Roblyer, 2004, p. vii.).

Crystal ball gazing, tarot cards and wishful thinking

Building an understanding of the basis for futures studies is important for discriminating between wishful popularists and academically insightful practitioners in the field.  Futures studies do not include predictions through supernatural means or those, such as economists, who forecast short-term economic conditions; neither does it include weather forecasts. If accurate prediction were possible, then there would be no choices and no point in futures study (Slaughter, 1996).  Futures research is based on multiple overlapping dimensions of the empirical (predictive data), the interpretative (meaning) and the critical (the context in society and research). As a field of research, it is ‘a web of interconnected theories, ideas and images which serve to contradict the popular and false notion that the future is an empty-space’ (Slaughter, 1996, p.39). As an academic discipline, there are continuing issues regarding who are futurists, what they are espousing, and the nature of research. However, the transdisciplinary nature of the work means that academic recognition is evolving (Inayatullah, 1998, 2005).

Futures is an emerging field focused on mapping, anticipating, deepening and transforming understandings of change (Inayatullah, 2005). Origins can be traced to the 1940s, when academics explored the re-building of war-devastated countries, as well as the longer term future of humanity. Other branches of thinking originated in the United States of America, with systems analysts predicting the future through elaborate calculations and time lines (Bell, 1997; Slaughter, 1996). What this approach lacked was the social construction of reality that shapes thinking about the future and the possibility of influencing directions. Quantitative data and predictions give little focus on the hearts and minds of people and communities, who influence situations in the first instance (Slaughter, 1996).  Bringing together the two perspectives on futures is a challenge for us as educators, in order to shape the future of school and future schools.

An understanding of the past and the present is equally important to futurists in the knowledge that ‘those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it’ (Santayana, 1905/2006). The foundations of futures discourse is grounded in the concepts of ‘alternatives’, options’, ‘agenda for the 21st century’ and ‘sustainability’ (Slaughter, 1996).  Evaluating possible (all that can be conceived), probable (likely given historical structures) and plausible (where we seek to go) futures are key scaffolds for thinking about future schooling (Inayatullah, 1998). Similarly, Iverson (n.d.) writes of futures being about convergent and divergent thinking involving both ‘out of the box’ synthesis-oriented thinking, as well as problem-solving, which is grounded in facts, numbers and explicitly stated rational assumptions. What makes such an approach useful are the rich conversations on what could be in terms of policy, what should be conceptually and in terms of outcomes. 

Scenario building

Key tools of futurists are scenarios that describe possible, probable and plausible futures. Scenarios are vivid descriptions and planning tools used to analyse, reflect on, learn about and view the future. Effective scenarios assist people to think about a future that they are thinking about or, conversely, ignoring or denying. They holistically draw from the disciplines of sociology, history and biology (Senge, 2005; Snoek, 2003). Scenario writers aim to contour the unknown future through exploring what we know we do not know, resulting in a better understanding of the present (Inayatullah, 2005). Scenarios help build a boundary around uncertainty through considering possibilities, making it more likely that we will be able to create the future; their successful use depending on the strength of the logic that links one idea to another (Newby, 2005b).  Scenarios are developed through an analysis of long-term and wide ranging trends that impact on society, slowly and profoundly, as distinct from short-term fashion trends. Strategic aims, long-term processes of change and multiple sets of variables are brought together in scenario development. While the process of developing scenarios is learning in itself, making sense of currently developed scenarios is a strategy for creating the path forward. Rethinking and rewriting scenarios and their consequences is a valuable means of reflecting on educational policies and supporting discussions on future pathways (OECD, 2001).

The role of ICT in future schools was the subject of scenarios developed by Cuban in 1993, in considering 10 years ahead. These were developed at a time when ICT-enabled learning in American schools was the exception rather than the rule, with reasons such as lack of funds to buy computers, teacher resistance, lack of administrative support and inadequate preparation of those becoming teachers dominating debate. Cuban (1993) argued that schools are very different from business and industry, which were also integrating technological innovation. He advocated that cultural beliefs about effective teaching and learning, and age-graded organisational approaches shape how innovations are adapted to fit the present. Cuban’s scenarios addressed emerging questions, namely:

• are the growing number of new schools using ICTs, schools of the future?
• is the marginal use of computers a sign that traditional teaching and learning will not be changed?
• is the marginal use of ICTs a sign of steadily growing acceptance?
  Cuban’s insightful look at our present from 1993 highlights the value of creating probably, possible and plausible futures from a range of perspectives. In Cuban’s examples, it was the perspective of a technophile, a preservationist and a cautious optimist that aptly describe today’s learning environments. The challenge for us is to create direction from this wisdom.

The OECD scenarios

Useful and powerful scenarios about future schooling were developed as part of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Schooling for Tomorrow project in the late 1990s. The scenarios were developed as a starting point for discussion on possible alternatives for schooling to 2020. Developing approaches for overcoming the perceived preoccupation with short-term decision-making in education was a key driver of the project. They combined trends, plausible inter-relationships between clusters of variables and guiding policy ideas in a set of predictions and visions.  They are organised into three pathways titled:

• maintenance of the status quo
• re-schooling possibilities for a changed social agenda
• de-schooling with an emphasis on individuality.

Their purpose was to sharpen understanding on how schooling might develop in years to come and how policy shapes these futures through considering how possible, probable and plausible the alternatives are. Further reflection and refinement of the scenarios was done by a team of researchers to better reflect the role of ICT (OECD, 2001).  Since that time, numerous organisations have used to scenarios as tools for policy-making or learning in their communities.

European Association of Teacher Education

A group that has used the OECD scenarios to develop a vision of a future for teacher education is the European Association of Teacher Education (ATEE). The goal of organisational learning underpinned the three-year project from 2000-2003.  Interestingly, the project grew out of the perception that there was no point in describing changes in curricula in members’ countries, as the document would be out of date before it was published (Snoek, 2003).  A theoretical model was developed to foster comparison and discussion of teacher education in six European countries; namely:

• deciding on the key question for the scenario
• identifying the fields of change
• selecting the most important fields of change
• identifying the scenarios to be developed
• describing the scenarios and bringing them to life.

The scenarios provided a common vocabulary and an effective basis for communicating complex, sometime paradoxical, conditions and options (Snoek, 2003).

Training and Development Agency

A second group that has used the OECD scenarios as a basis for speculation about future pathways is the Training and Development Agency (TDA) for schools in Britain. As part of a futures project in 2003, titled Teaching 2020, the group considered the nature of the workforce and retention strategies. Their work was grounded in the Future Schools project undertaken by the OECD. They used three scenarios developed by the OECD as a basis for discussion, none being offered as preferred scenarios. At national British conferences in 2004 and 2005, five themes were identified:

• uncertainty and innovation
• technology 2020;
• the role of the teacher
• equality of opportunity and inclusion
• the commercialisation of education.

The Teaching 2020 national discussion reached a convergent view that 2020 technology is already here, however it is effective use in learning that needs consideration.  The process continues to engage education stakeholders in planning to build a principled, responsive system in which to educate and train tomorrow’s teachers (Newby, 2005b; Williams, 2005).

Australian Council for Computers in Education

The recent Australian Computer Education Conference hosted by the Australian Council for Computers in Education (ACCE) included a leadership forum to debate possible, probable and plausible futures for ICTs in learning. ICT leaders, principals and forward-thinking teachers, lecturers and researchers came together in a forum designed to set the direction for the next two years of professional work. The OECD future schooling scenarios provided the foundation for discussion on:

• what to teach, who to teach, and how to teach: the role of technology
• the work of teachers and the role of networks
• student voice, engagement and creativity
• school design.

Ideas are being collated into a nation position statement on ICTs and learning for the future. Key themes emerging from the discussions are that:

• future schooling is not about speculation on buildings and gadgets - it is about learning and relationships
• learning spaces need to be diverse, flexible, good quality places in which people feel comfortable
• learning needs to be able to take place in any place, at any time, from any to any, from many directions, in many ways
• learning design should be driven by the big question –‘What kind of adults do we want our students to be?’

Leading change

For school leaders, creating the future is about adopting a mindset, then a passion and then a plan, rather than finding and choosing a path offered by the present. The future is a place we are creating and the task will change both us and where we are going. As a professional community, we have the opportunity to renew educators’ confidence in their work in making a significant difference to student learning outcomes. However, on a broader level, there is more to consider. Influencing  curriculum and school reform, and creating the vision that moves school communities, regions, and systems forward, is a journey that may well start with the ACEL educators meeting  online and talking about  21st  century learning.

Useful websites

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Schooling for Tomorrow www.oecd.org
OECD Schooling for Tomorrow www.oecd.org
UK Training and Development Agency Futures Project www.tda.gov.uk
Australian Council for Computers in Education www.acce.edu.au

References

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Queensland Government. New basics project technical paper. 1999. Brisbane: Education Queensland. Retrieved  8 April from: education.qld.gov.au
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